Used car sales slowdown predicted by Cox Automotive

Cox Automotive is predicting a slowdown in used car sales in the second half of the year, compared to its previous forecast.

Its latest Insight Quarterly update is predicting 1,885,782 transactions in the third quarter of the year, falling to 1,617,609 in the final three months of the year.

Across the year, it expects 7,434,709 transactions of used cars to be completed, which is 2.7% up from 2023’s total transactions figure, and 0.8% higher than the 2001-2019 average.

Cox Automotive insight director, Philip Nothard, said: “Our revised forecast reflects the positive performance recorded in the first two quarters. Despite subdued retail demand, margin pressures, and ongoing constraints in prime three-year-old retail stock, the used market showed remarkable resilience during the first half.”

Used car sales

However, he has cautioned against expecting similar growth to continue due to limited availability of in-demand internal combustion engine (ICE) variants, volatile EV values, and consumer appetite for rising prices.

He said: “The second half of the year will likely see volume cool due to tightening supply into the market, heightening price competition in the new car space, and continued low consumer confidence.

“Supply also remains a hot topic. Used dealers continue to feel the effect of the 3.1 million ‘lost’ registrations from 2020-23. These are the vehicles that ordinarily would now be replenishing forecourts up and down the country and their absence is palpable. The number of ICE models entering the new market is diminishing rapidly and are not being replaced like-for-like.”

He concluded: “Significant hurdles are anticipated in the second half of 2024 and into 2025. Still, the volume of transactions we see should be taken as a positive sign that demand and profit opportunities exist.”